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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a straightforward pattern. It frequently acts as a type of apology. Our apologies we got wrong your team in our preseason forecasts.

On paper, it's a direct line: the coach who orchestrated the largest improvement wins the prize. However, it creates an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually rewarding excellent leadership or merely the biggest shock.

But the latest competition is distinctly different. The pool of nominees is remarkably strong. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning conference winners falling away and longtime also-rans rising in unison. Under an ordinary season, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the clear favorite. But in this wild and fun year, he's facing five other exceptional coaches.

This is how the projected vote should be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by signal-callers. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. If you solve a quarterback, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson didn't merely fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. In the right ecosystem, Williams has been given the chance to showcase his special talent. From Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's consistent dominance. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become more decisive, less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the system instead of going rogue. It is an attack constructed entirely in the coach's image: a physical ground attack, a heavy helping of play-action and a innovative aerial game that springs wide-open targets all over the field. The QB has capitalized. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been capable to conjure magic out of nothing.

The coach came to Chicago with a specific offensive philosophy. Virtually every gamble – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, turning Williams into a rhythm passer – has worked. That's uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who entered the building with the kind of expectations Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the hottest name on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero sure things. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme genius but the kind of culture builder that can inject new life into an organization.

During a typical season, Johnson would be the runaway choice. Yet the current isn't a typical season!

Where Johnson's candidacy runs slightly unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense currently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are surviving on takeaways, and turnovers are famously unreliable. Coaches can emphasise ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. With a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two victories behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is established for sustained winning. But Johnson falls short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's another first-time leader who has engineered a swift turnaround. During the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best overall football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now sits at fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, he has excelled at the leadership stuff, which was not a given after his early public appearances and some of his preseason moves.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed themselves with the ideal coaching cocktail of new ideas and veteran savvy, he bet on newbies. From the head coach himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That type of setup is exciting on paper, but often collapses in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is learning a new job on the fly. But he has pulled everyone and everything into sync.

After an early strong beginning, there was a risk that the season would go off the track. A mid-year collapse caused the team stumbling again. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Instead, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive answers and started hunting consistent ones. Coen refocused the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and asked his QB to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three seed. Coen gets the tiniest deduction in the standings because he inherited a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year narrative has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB move.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a different signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative play-caller might have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. By the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP front-runner. He has fallen away after that time, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, placing him only a single place ahead of peers.

Still